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DID THE 1998 MASTER SETTLEMENT AFFECT PRENATAL SMOKING?
This dramatic price increase was predicted to lead to a
particularly large decline in cigarette smoking among pregnant
women, since previous research had found that their price
sensitivity exceeds that of smokers in general. Thus the MSA was
expected to yield significant public health benefits by reducing
the incidence of low birth weight births.
In "The Effect of The 1998 Master Settlement Agreement on
Prenatal Smoking," (NBER Working Paper 11176), Douglas Levy and
Ellen Meara estimate the decrease in prenatal smoking resulting
from the MSA. In their analysis, the authors use data from the
National Vital Statistic System's Natality Detail Files for the
1996-2000 period, which provides them with a sample of nearly
ten million births.
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